Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
